Come Saturday, the curtain will be drawn on the 2015 polls with the conduct of governorship and State House of Assembly elections across most states of the federation. The outcome of the March 28 presidential contest is expected to have an effect and alter projections in the gubernatorial race in many states. In others, with the contest between President Goodluck Jonathan and General Muhammadu Buhari resolved, local issues would determine the outcome this weekend. Yusuf Alli, Managing Editor, Northern Operation, Sam Egburonu, Associate Editor, Dare Odufowokan, Assistant Editor, Remi Adelowo, Assistant Editor and Sunday Oguntola review the outlook in the gubernatorial and assembly polls and project likely outcomes.

One week is a long time in politics. Seven days ago General Muhammadu Buhari was just the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC). Today, he’s Nigeria’s President-Elect. Although he’s not on the ballot in the gubernatorial contests that would play out across the country this weekend, his influence looms large over the whole affair.

Expectedly, APC and its candidates would benefit from association with his name in the North West, North East and North Central. In the South West and South South, many are increasingly consideration whether they want to belong to the opposition in the new dispensation.

It is going to be battle royale in the 19 Northern states where the

APC will slug it out with a depressed Peoples’ Democratic

Party (PDP). Other parties in contention in some states are the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and the Peoples Democratic Movement (PDM).

The battle in the North is unique because of the following factors: strong party affiliation; gale of defections; the likely bandwagon effect of the victory of Buhari; ethno-religious configuration;  the personality of the candidates; zoning / power shift syndrome and probable voters’ apathy.

NORTH WEST

The PDP controls the state governments in Kebbi, Jigawa, Katsina and Kaduna. This notwithstanding, the sentiments across the zone is largely pro-Buhari. Many candidates are expected to ride to victory on the president-elect’s coattails.

KEBBI

Seventeen candidates want to be governor in Kebbi State but the odds favour the APC’s Sen. Atiku Bagudu. His closest rival is Gen. Sarkin Yaki Bello of the PDP. Although APC earned 567,883 votes to PDP’s 100,972 at the presidential poll, its leaders are working round the clock to seal victory on April 11. One of the party’s leaders said: “We are not taking things for granted at all; we want to make it a finished business.”

The imposition of the PDP candidate by outgoing Governor Saidu

Dakingari triggered the defection of many party stalwarts to APC. They include ex-FCT Minister, Adamu Aliero, Sen. Muhammadu

Magoro, Bala Na’Allah, Suleiman Mohammed Argungu and the APC governorship candidate.

It was not surprising that APC had a clean sweep last Saturday. Barring last minute game-changer, the internal wrangling in PDP has laid the foundation for APC’s victory.

Verdict: APC to win

KATSINA

This is the home state of Buhari. His image looms large over it and the bandwagon might dictate the outcome of the governorship election. The gubernatorial candidate of PDP, Musa Nashuni needs to do something extraordinary to match the hurricane support  of the APC candidate, ex-Speaker Aminu Masari.

Verdict: APC to win comfortably.

 KANO

This is safe political terrain for APC where it polled a massive 1,

903,999 votes against PDP’s 215, 779 last Saturday. The landslide victory of has sent jitters down the spine of PDP members who appear resigned to fate. The contest would be mainly between APC’s Dr. Abdullahi Umar Ganduje and Salihu Muhammad Sagir of the PDP.

Verdict: APC to win comfortably

KADUNA

Having lost the presidency last Saturday, the only hope left for Vice President Namadi Sambo is to win the governorship slot for PDP in Kaduna State. His political godson and incumbent governor, Mukhtar Ramalan Yero faces a Herculean electoral contest against the candidate of the APC, Mallam Nasir el-Rufai, the former Minister of FCT.

For APC to have garnered 1,127,760 votes at the presidential poll against PDP’s 484,085, Sambo does not need a soothsayer to tell him that his party’s prospects for this weekend are bleak.

Although APC is working against complacency, other strong things in its favour are the Buhari factor; the poor performance of Yero and the desire for change; the choice of Barnabas Bala Bantex, who is loved in Southern Kaduna, as deputy governorship candidate; and the defection of many stalwarts of PDP to APC.

Verdict: APC to win.

ZAMFARA

This is an APC stronghold. In the presidential election, the party floored PDP with 612, 202 to 144, 833 votes. Nothing substantial may change during the governorship poll because the masses are still behind ex-Governor Sani Yerima and his political godson, Abdulaziz Yari. Since 1999, PDP has not won the governorship election in Zamfara State. There are 19 other candidates trying their luck against Yari – among them ex-Governor Mahmud Aliyu Shinkafi of PDP.

Verdict: APC victory.

JIGAWA

During his visit to the Presidential Villa on Friday, Governor Sule

Lamido was quick to acknowledge that the PDP was rejected at the polls last Saturday by Nigerians. He was also forthright in setting the template for the governorship election when he said: “There is a tendency for bandwagon effect but it is up to us to work very hard.”

The battle in Jigawa is between the APC candidate, Mohammed Badaru Abubakar and PDP’s Mallam Aminu Ibrahim Ringim.

Others are Sardauna Yaro (APGA) and Murtala Musa Galamawa (NCP). The race is a litmus test for the political survival of Lamido who has developed Jigawa in an unprecedented manner in the last eight years.

As a grassroots mobiliser, Lamido might not go down without a good fight. But the Buhari factor might just prove too much for him.

Verdict: APC to win

SOKOTO

The governorship contest is also a family affair in Sokoto where the leading candidate, Speaker Aminu Waziri Tambuwal (APC) is pitched against his political mentor, Sen. Abdalla Wali of the PDP. When Wali was elected a Senator in 1999, it was his lot to search for a competent legislative aide and he found one in the young Tambuwal. The rest is now history.  Having been inspired by his time working in the Senate, he took a plunge into politics and rose to the peak as the Speaker of the House of Representatives.

The APC, ably coordinated by Governor Aliyu Wammako, remains the party to beat in Sokoto. The party’s vote haul of 671, 926 at the poll on March 28 was a signal that the PDP might not go far at the governorship level. Its lingering internal squabbles occasioned by the shortchanging of Deputy Governor Mukhtar Shagari may make the defeat of the outgoing ruling party a fait accompli.

Verdict: APC to win comfortably

NORTH CENTRAL

With the exception of Kwara and Nasarawa, PDP controls the state governments in the zones four other states – Niger, Benue, Plateau and Kogi. What used to be a PDP stronghold has been devastated by Hurricane Buhari. However, the results this weekend may still be determined by a complex mix of ethnic and religious politics that is never far from the surface in this zone.

BENUE

Watching Governor Gabriel Suswam of Benue State on the television on last Friday revealed the amount of pressure he’s been under since he was humbled by Senator Barnabas Gemade at last Saturday’s senatorial contest.

With the PDP losing two out of the three senatorial seats in the state, the governorship election could be slipping from its grasp. At the time of writing this report, the momentum was clearly on the side of APC with several PDP heavyweights billed to defect to APC in the days before the governorship election. The loss of these big names could prove psychologically devastating for the demoralized PDP.

The top candidates are ex-Minister Samuel Ortom (APC) backed by Sen. George Akume, former PDP national chairman, Sen.Barnabas Gemade; ex-Minister Audu Ogbeh among others. Suswam’s anointed candidate is Prince Terhemen Tarzor.

Verdict: APC to win.

PLATEAU

For the first time since 1999, the fortunes of PDP in Plateau State dipped last Saturday pointing to the significance of the crack in its fold. At the presidential ballot, the party secured 549, 615 votes to defeat APC which garnered 429, 140 votes. The demand for power shift and other issues like the imposition of PDP candidate, Sen. Gyang Pwajok might make the governorship poll tougher. The people of Southern and Central Plateau have rejected the imposition Pwajok from Plateau North on them after the eight-year tenure of Governor David Jang.

Out of the 17 local governments in the state, Plateau North has six, South (six) and Central is left with five. Motivated by the urge for power shift, the people of Southern and Central Plateau have opted for APC leaving only Plateau North in PDP. The APC governorship candidate, Hon. Simon Lalong is from Southern Plateau and his deputy is the immediate past

Vice Chancellor of the University of Jos, Prof. Sonny Tyodem from Plateau Central. On its part, the PDP picked its candidate from Plateau North and deputy, U.G. Gomwalk from Kanke in Plateau Central.

The outgoing Governor Jang is locked in the fight of his life because Pwajok loss will overshadow his political legacy. He is likely to take advantage of the high population strength of Plateau North, the church and Berom ethnic nationality to upstage the APC candidate.

Verdict: PDP to win

KWARA

There are 16 governorship candidates in Kwara. The crowd notwithstanding, the real contest is between incumbent Governor Abdulfatai Ahmed (APC) and Sen. Simeon Sule Ajibola of PDP.

A coronation is likely in the state going by the mood of voters at last Saturday’s presidential election where they voted massively for APC with 302,146 votes compared to PDP’s 32,602.

The problems with PDP in the state are wrong choice of candidate; restriction of the political influence of its candidate, Ajibola to only Kwara South Senatorial District; the recourse to religious and ethnic politics by Ajibola; abandonment by other PDP governorship aspirants except Prof Shuaib Oba Abdulraheem (the DG of Ajibola Campaign Organization) as well as the sudden loss of support from the centre and PDP financier in the state, Hajiya Bola Shagaya.

On its part, APC has gained more supporters with its ability to keep the state united; the strong platform of the late Wazirin of Ilorin,

Dr. Abubakar Olusola Saraki; the political support from Sen. Gbemisola Saraki; the religious factor; and the bandwagon effect of Buhari’s victory.

Verdict: The state is 70-30 in favour of APC.

KOGI

There is no governorship poll in Kogi State but the struggle for control of the State House of Assembly will be between APC, PDP and Accord Party. Last Saturday, APC won all the three Senatorial seats in the state across 21 local government areas. While Accord is stronger in Yagba West, APC and PDP will slug it out in 20 others.

Verdict: APC to win majority in the assembly

NASARAWA

The results of the presidential election in Nasarawa State have shown that the governorship poll is an even fight between the APC candidate, Governor Umar Tanko Al-Makura and PDP’s Yusuf Mohammed Igabi. Last Saturday, PDP garnered 273, 460 while APC secured 236,838 votes. But a huge number of votes that could have gone either way were voided.

The indices which will shape the race are ethnicity; religion; godfathers; coalition of forces and performance in office.

The other candidates in the governorship race are Hajiya A.

Mbaka (LP); Labaran Maku (APGA); Tanko Malami (PPA); Zakka Zaggi Rabo (ADC); Stanley John Mamud (Accord) and Haruna Shuaibu Iliyasu (ID).

Findings reveal that if there is an alliance between Maku, who is

from the influential Eggon ethnic group and another candidate, the governor may walk on tight rope. The selling points of Al-Makura are his humility, sterling performance in office, ability to resolve the incessant crises between the natives and Fulani herdsmen; and earning the confidence of the peasant.

Verdict: Battleground

NIGER

The humiliating defeat of Governor Babangida Aliyu in last Saturday’s Niger East Senatorial District election foretold what may happen in the governorship election in the state. Apart from Babangida, most PDP leaders are yet to recover from what one of them described as the “Buhari Tsunami.”

The battle in Niger State is purely that of former Army

Generals and officers whose children are contesting. The APC candidate, Abubakar Sani Bello is the son of a former Army chief and a key stakeholder in MTN, Col. Sani Bello (retd). The PDP candidate, Umar Mohammed Nasko is a scion of Gen. Gado Nasko’s family. Investigation also confirmed that the APC candidate is married to the daughter of a former Head of State, Gen. Abdulsalami Abubakar.

At last Saturday’s election APC received 657, 678 votes to PDP’s 149, 222. The gap may prove too big to bridge before this weekend’s contest.

Verdict: APC to win

NORTH-EAST

The critical factor in the North-East is the insurgency and how the Jonathan administration has handled it. That clearly weighed heavily in the minds of voters as they punished the president and his party at the polls last weekend. That pattern is expected to be repeated this Saturday. However, ethnic and religious factors could also affect outcomes in Adamawa and Taraba.

BAUCHI

The earning of a paltry 86, 085 votes by the PDP in Bauchi State during the presidential election compared to APC’s 931, 598 votes has left other parties with a little hope in the governorship poll. Unless a miracle happens, the battle is over because the bandwagon effect of the poll success of the President-elect would be to the advantage of the APC governorship candidate, Muhammed Abdullahi Abubakar. If it is true that Governor Isa Yuguda installed both the APC and PDP

candidates, it must be a deft political move which may see him winning wherever the pendulum swings.

The other nine candidates include Danladi Musa (MPPP); Mukhtar

Haladu (AD); Bello Ibrahim (APGA); Salisu Musa (UPN); Mato Musa (UPP); Bala Musa (PDC); Abdullahi Adamu Usman (KOWA); Jatau Mohammad Auwal (PDP); and Musa Yakubu Wanka (ACPN).

Verdict: APC to win comfortably

GOMBE

Despite placing Sen. Danjuma Goje under house arrest, APC still  won the presidential election with 361, 245 to PDP’s 96, 873 votes.  The tension in the state accounted for the low turnout of voters. Governor Ibrahim Dankwambo of PDP is in dire straits because of the formidable forces arrayed against him.

He has an acceptable opponent in Mohammed Inuwa Yahaya of the APC, but the decisive factor would be the Buhari phenomenon. The rest of the field are Hassan Kidda (LP); Muhammed Ibrahim (AD); Ahmed Modibo Wali (APGA); Abdulhamid  Sadiq (UDP); Yusuf Haruna (NNPP); Jafar Abubakar(ADC); Umar Ardo (PDC); Abubakar Hashidu (Accord); Gidado Hashidu (ACPN) and Muhammad Yelwa Daudu (SDP).

Verdict: APC victory.

TARABA

Although ex-Minister of Niger Delta Affairs, Darius Dickson Ishaku of the PDP is the leading candidate, Sen. Aisha Jummai Alhassan is closing in on him.

The outcome of the presidential election in Taraba State suggests a tight governorship poll on Saturday because while PDP scored

310, 800 votes, APC was able to get 261, 326. This trend left a

difference of 49, 474 votes between the parties. With more hard

work, the table could turn against PDP at the governorship level unless the ruling party in the state is more circumspect in tackling the Buhari bandwagon effect. The factors that may ultimately determine the winner include ethnicity, religion, and the disposition of former Minister of Defence, Gen. Theophilus Danjuma. The PDP candidate is Danjuma’s boy and that guarantees him the edge as far as funding is concerned.

Others seeking the office are Kabiru Umar (PDM); Hamman

Mohammed (PPN); Razak Umar (LP); Gambo Usman (UDP); Bello Mohammed (PPA); Charles Buri (AA); Umar Arabi (DPP); Kabiru Bala (ACPN); and David Sabo Kente (SDP).

Verdict: PDP to win

BORNO

The declaration of Gambo Lawan as the PDP governorship candidate in Borno State by the Federal High Court, Abuja has thrown the party into disarray. The decision saw a former Governor of Borno State, Sen. Modu Ali Sheriff losing out in his bid to install his godson as governor of the state. The development has forced many PDP members to stand aloof and watch how Lawan will weather the storm.

Thus, Lawan is going into the governorship election as a political

orphan. With APC’s huge votes of 473, 543 in Borno State during the presidential election and PDP’s paltry 25,640 votes, the outcome of the governorship poll is predictable.

Verdict: APC victory

YOBE

The APC is already in celebratory mood here following its overwhelming victory at the presidential election where it earned

446, 265 votes and left PDP with 25, 526. Governor Ibrahim Gaidam(APC) is leading other contestants like ex-Minister Adamu Maina Waziri ( who is becoming a veteran governorship candidate); Buka Abba Isa (AD); Muhammad Musa Lawal (APGA); Alli Gunsama Jallaba (NCP). The fact that the APC family had been united is strength for the party. On the other hand, the PDP has been battling divisions within its ranks since it concluded its governorship primaries.

Verdict: APC to win

ADAMAWA

It is a tough fight among four strong candidates in the state. They

are the APC’s Senator Jibrilla Bindow; the SDP candidate, Marcus Gundiri, who narrowly lost to ex-Governor Murtala Nyako in 2011;  the PDP candidate, Mallam Nuhu Ribadu (a former chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) and the candidate of the PDM, Dr. Ahmed Mohammed Modibbo.

With the backing of the Christian community, especially in Adamawa North, Gundiri is set to give APC candidate, Bindow a good fight. The APC’s leadership at the national level needs to intervene by prevailing on ex-Vice President Atiku Abubakar to forgive Bindow the political sins he had allegedly committed or else Gundiri might have a slim win.

Already, there is pressure on the PDM candidate, Modibbo to step down for Gundiri in what appears to be a last minute accord. Although APC secured 374, 701 votes during the presidential election against PDP’s 251, 664, Ribadu is facing opposition from within his party. Some influential leaders of the party are behind the campaign for a protest vote against Ribadu.

Verdict: Adamawa is too close to call.

SOUTH SOUTH

As projected by this newspaper, President Jonathan won last weekend’s polls comfortably in the South South zone. He is not on the ballot as the states choose their governors this Saturday. His loss could dampen the enthusiasm of his party men. The prospect of life in opposition could also affect the way some states vote. But in the final analysis local issues of power shift and balancing could prove decisive.

CROSS RIVER

Going by the results posted by the PDP in the presidential race, its governorship candidate, Senator Ben Ayade, should be awaiting mere coronation next Saturday.

Voters massively chose PDP above other parties at the presidential election. It scored 414,863 to APC’s 28,368. Such a wide margin makes any upset unlikely for the APC or any other party. The incumbency factor is also in favour in Ayade. His party has always won the state and has seemingly impenetrable structure in all the nooks and crannies.

But politics is never as simple as ABC. Things are not always what they look. A seemingly innocuous incident can upturn things in politics, turning a dominant party into an opposition in no time. While Ayade remains the clear favourite to grab the votes owing by the victory of his party in all local governments of the state at the presidential poll, the emergence of Gen Muhammadu Buhari as President-elect could sway votes in the direction of the APC.

Its governorship candidate, Odey Ochicha, is no means a push-over. The staff of National Petroleum Investment Management Services (NPIMS) has deep pockets and wide network. He is considered approachable and accessible but critics say he lacks political experience and has never won any election.

There is talk that voters could look his way so as not to be in the opposition with APC in power at federal level but that remains to be seen. Except that and the unthinkable happens, Ayade might be on his way to winning the election.

Verdict: PDP to win

AKWA IBOM

As far as many members of the APC in Akwa-Ibom are concerned, the 953,304 votes scored by President Jonathan in the state were just concocted. They claimed there were no elections in Akwa-Ibom. Some who accepted elections held alleged the exercise was marred by irregularities and manipulations.

The 58,411 votes for Buhari, they said, were just allocated to the president-elect. Realistically speaking, no one expected Buhari to win Akwa-Ibom going by the traditional voting pattern and mood of the state. But the massive margin enjoyed by Jonathan convinced people there was more to the poll than meets the eyes.

Come April 11, APC’s governorship candidate, Umana Umana, will be out to prove the large margin in Akwa Ibom by PDP was a fluke. He is from Uyo district with the largest voting population in the state. As former Secretary to the State Government (SSG), he has a wide network that could be handy.

His candidature is boosted by the support of former Governor Victor Attah and former Petroleum Minister, Don Etiebet, to the APC. The duo has scores to settle with Governor Akpabio and prove their relevance in local politics. With them, Umana is a stronger candidate.

But he is up against formidable forces in the PDP led by Akpabio who is bent on installing Udom Emmanuel as his successor. Akpabio is a major financer of national PDP so shouldn’t have challenges spending to enable his anointed candidate win.

Verdict: Battleground

RIVERS

The April 11 governorship election promises to be an epic battle between the two major opponents, Dakuku Peterside of APC and PDP’s Nyesom Wike. The election, from all indications, would be a battle of egos, money, the political future of the dramatis personae and much more.

For the state governor, Rotimi Amaechi, who is rounding up his second term in office, this is one election that would define his place in the political history of the South-South state.

And for his opponents, this is one ‘battle’ that nothing would be spared to reclaim the state from a man who, in the last two years, has proved a real handful.

Riding high on the back of his endorsement by the First Lady, Patience Jonathan, the PDP candidate is telling everyone that he is a man to watch out for.

But of great concern to PDP leaders in the state is the opposition to Wike’s candidacy by influential opinion leaders in the state including former minister, Chief Alabo Graham Douglas and Ijaw activist, Annkio Briggs to mention just a few.

Their grouse is not unconnected with the failure of the PDP to respect the unwritten zoning agreement dating back to1998 regarding the governorship seat. It provides for rotation between the Upland and the Riverine areas of the state.

Wike hails from Ikwerre in the upland, the same ethnic nationality as the incumbent governor, whose predecessor, Dr. Peter Odili, who governed from 1999 to 2007 was also from the upland.

The agitation for power shift favour Peterside. From the Opobo kingdom, the youthful politician was elected to represent Andoni/Opobo-Nkoro area in the House of Representatives in 2011.

Peterside’s emergence, sources say, was a deft move by his political mentor, Governor Amaechi to rally the support of the Riverine people behind the APC in the battle for the political soul of the state.

With the Riverine people expected to queue behind Peterside in the election, political observers are of the opinion that the support by the Ikwerre and Ogoni nationalities for or against the two major candidates would go a long way to determine who wins the election.

A few posers would suffice here: can Amaechi convince his kinsmen to reject another Ikwerre (Wike) in favour of Peterside? Would aggrieved PDP governorship aspirants and key stakeholders like Graham Douglas, Dokubo, Briggs and others work against Wike who is the anointed candidate of the Presidency?

In the Ogoni axis, Peterside, sources say, is head and shoulders above Wike in the battle for votes. His high rating is not unconnected to the influence of the Senator representing Rivers East, Magnus Abe, who though lost his return bid on March 28, remains a loyal member of the APC.

With the victory of President Goodluck Jonathan in Rivers State still a subject of controversy, the Rivers APC is reportedly girding his loins in order to prevent a reoccurrence in the governorship election.

Against this backdrop, the party is not leaving anything to chance in its preparations for the coming polls. The victory of the APC in the presidential election, sources say, has galvanised members of the party to deliver the governorship seat for the party come April 11.

This is however not the case in the PDP camp. The defeat of President Goodluck Jonathan in the March 28 polls, sources say has greatly dampened the initial enthusiasm in the party.

In the last one week, a palpable gloom has gripped the rank and file of the party who fear that the people of the state will likely pitch their tent with APC in the governorship election in line with the political history of the state which usually prefers to be in the country’s political mainstream.

The pattern of voting in the governorship election, sources posit, would significantly reflect in the state House of Assembly which would hold on the same day.

Verdict: APC to win

DELTA

Still riding high on the crest of its victory in the presidential election, the Delta State chapter of the PDP is confident of recording a similar feat in the governorship election.

Its candidate, Senator Ifeanyi Okowa, who started his political career as a councilor, appears to be the odds on favourite in the election in which his major opponent, Olorogun O’tega Emerhor, cannot be considered as a push-over.

A few major factors are working in Okowa’s favour. First, is his deep understanding of the political environment owing to his almost two decades in politics.

A former councilor, ex-local government chairman, former commissioner and ex-Secretary to the State Government (SSG) and currently a senator, Okowa also enjoy the support of many political stakeholders in the state on account of the zoning formula, which favours the Delta North where he hails from.

The intimidating structures of the PDP due to its 16 years of dominating the political landscape of the state since 1999 would also come in handy for Okowa, who currently chairs the Senate Committee on Health and is credited with the passage of the National Health Act, which was his initiative.

For the APC candidate, Olorogun Emerhor, an Urhobo, an ethnic group which unarguably controls the largest population in Delta Central, all hope is not lost despite the poor showing of his party in the presidential election.

The businessman turned politician, sources disclosed, is banking on the huge population of the Urhobos in the state to clinch the governorship seat.

But his aspiration is not helped by his party’s lack of structures in the state coupled with his political inexperience. Though many Deltans believe that the APC candidate has all it takes to take the state to the next level if elected as governor, the division within the leadership of his ethnic group, many of whom are allegedly pro-PDP may work against him at the polls.

Despite the heavy odds stacked against the APC candidate, many party members remain upbeat on Emerhor’s chances. Their optimism, it was learnt, stems from the party’s victory in the presidential polls and the likely bandwagon effect this would have on the governorship elections.

Another governorship candidate many people seem not to be looking in his direction as capable of making any impact in the polls is Chief Great Ogboru of the Labour Party.

An Urhobo, Ogboru gave the incumbent governor a run for his money in the 2007 and 2011 governorship elections, and this fact that is not lost on political watchers of the state who argue that the LP candidate has the lion heart and popularity to pull an upset in the governorship polls.

However, the heavy depletion of Ogboru’s resources which he expended on the prosecution of his 2003 and 2007 governorship campaign may hamper on his chances of realising his age-long ambition come April 11.

In the event that Okowa and Emerhor wins the majority votes in their respective senatorial zones, the battleground would be in the South senatorial zone where the incumbent governor, Dr. Emmanuel Uduaghan, an Itsekiri comes from.

Sources say when the chips are down, the PDP candidate would win this zone barring any last minute upset. In the Ijaw speaking area of the zone, Okowa appears the candidate to beat, as influential opinion leaders in the area including Ijaw leader, Chief Edwin Clark and ex-militant, Government Ekpemupolo popularly called Tompolo, are backing him to the hilt.

In the worst case scenario, the Itsekiri votes would likely be split among the two major candidates thus putting Emerhor at a disadvantage.

And for the House of Assembly election, the PDP may win majority of the seats leaving a handful of others for the APC and LP.

Verdict: PDP to win

SOUTHWEST

With the presidential election settled, the gubernatorial contests in three South West states would be determined by totally local issues and personalities. However the Buhari factor could come into play as the people of the region as excited at the prospect of being in the same boat as the party that controls the center. This could have a bearing on Saturday’s polls. Governorship elections would hold in only Lagos, Ogun and Oyo States. In Ondo, Ekiti and Osun only state assembly polls will hold.

LAGOS

Although President Jonathan, ahead of the March 28 presidential elections, made tremendous efforts at swaying the electorate in Lagos in favour of his party, the PDP, it is doubtful if his political maneuvers now guarantee a victorious outing for Jimi Agbaje, the PDP gubernatorial candidate.

Not even the recent attempt by the PDP in the state to discredit APC’s national leader, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, appeared to have succeeded as the electorate in their majority gave the state to Gen. Buhari and his party during the last electon.

Although the PDP pulled some surprise victories in some erstwhile APC strongholds like Oshodi-Isolo, Ajeromi Ifelodun, Amuwo-Odofin and Surulere, pundits say the ruling party will still outshine PDP at the polls during next weekend’s state elections. It is also believed that the bloc votes by non-natives that gave Jonathan a good performance last weekend may not be there for Agbaje and other PDP candidate next week, thus exposing the party to massive defeat.

“We all understand the role played by the vote of the non-natives in the victories of the PDP in those areas. We all know why they voted PDP in that election. Now that Jonathan is not contesting next Saturday, these people will vote their conscience freely without any ethnic or religious bias,” Jimi Benson, the House of Representatives member-elect for Ikorodu federal constituency, said.

While some talk about a keenly contested two-horse race between the APC and the PDP, for who will become the next governor of the state, others insist Agbaje’s candidature will not add any value to the party’s chances as it will still be defeated.

Those optimistic about Agbaje’s performance in the polls are citing the fact that the structure on which he contested the 2007 election has now been collapsed into the PDP. With this, they feel the party is further strengthened to tackle the APC in next month’s election.

But there are those who feel that with PDP as his party of choice, Agbaje should not bank on the support he enjoyed in 2007. “While Agbaje may be well loved by Lagosians in a way, his candidature is not enough to change how the people of Lagos feel about the PDP.

Also, months after his controversial victory at the primary election, Agbaje is still battling some serious issues within his party. And with these critical issues still unresolved, pundits say his aspiration to rule Lagos may remain mere wishful thinking.

Issues like the need to reconcile the several factions of the party and how the party will coordinate the governorship campaign slowed down the progress of the party towards preparing adequately for the all-important February election.

“We prepared seriously. But up till this moment, some leaders are not ready to work with others to ensure Agbaje’s victory. Even after all the aspirants pledge their supports to him, some leaders remained aggrieved even after the candidate himself met some of them and pleaded for their understanding. Majority of them claimed they are not angry with him but with the leaders who imposed him on the party.

There was also the problem of how to run the campaign. This was a serious problem. Some people wanted the structure established before the primary election to promote Agbaje retained. But several others made frantic calls for harmonisation to accommodate all interests in the party.

Feelers, however, indicated that the Bode George/Ogunlewe faction of the party remained unwilling to accommodate other interests and as such, shut many chieftains out. A member of the state executive committee, who preferred anonymity, while speaking to The Nation, said the party realized the danger of the situation.

APC’s control of political structures in the state is massive – from state to local council levels. This gives it an unparalleled ability to turn out the votes on polling day. Pundits say the party is already making good use of this advantage to correct some political mistakes in areas it lost last weekend.

By the time all of the above are placed side by side with the unending crises that have rocked the PDP in the state for years, Akinwunmi Ambode, the APC governorship candidate, may most likely emerge as the victor in next Saturday’s political contest.

But unlike in 2011, when it was a clean sweep for the ruling party, the PDP is expected to win a handful of assembly seats, especially in zreas like Amuwo Odofin, Oshodi-Isolo and Ajeromi Ifelodun where its candidates won some national assembly seats last week.

In 2011, Babatunde Fashola of the then Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), now APC, won re-election as governor of the Centre of Excellence by a total of 1,509,113 votes to beat Ade Dosunmu of the PDP to a distant second with 300,450 votes. The ACN also won all the 40 House of Assembly seats in the state back then.

Verdict: APC to win.

OGUN

Before the March 28 presidential election, an array of PDP chieftains, including Buruji Kashamu, former party boss, Joju Fadairo, Adewale Osinubi, Doyin Okupe, amongst others, was working round the clock to deliver votes in the state to the PDP. They were determined to beat APC to second place. They campaigned against the wide acceptance of Governor Ibikunle Amosun. It was a huge task for Jonathan’s men and at the end of last Saturday’s presidential polls, they learnt their lessons. PDP lost the presidency and could only win a senate seat and two House seats.

Consequently, observers say the support base of the party in Ogun State is daily being depleted ahead of the governorship election, giving an impression that Gboyega Isiaka, the PDP governorship candidate may soon be alone and fighting a lost battle.

While rumours are rife that Buruji is already negotiating with the leadership of the APC for a soft landing following Jonathan’s loss of the presidency, Okupe and Fadairo are said to be less interested in what become of Gboyega’s aspiration as their interest in the entire process had all along been hinged on the presidency.

More shockingly, Osinubi, who is the candidate of the PDP for the House of Representatives for Ijebu Central Federal Constituency, on Thursday defected to the ruling APC, and vowed to support Governor Ibikunle Amosun’s re-election.

This is just as the PDP is worrying its head over the seeming ‘siddon look’ attitude of people like former Governor Gbenga Daniel, former Speaker Dimeji Bankole, Jubril Martins Kuye and a host of other aggrieved PDP leaders amidst fears that they may work against its victory on Saturday.

Analysts are also of the opinion that winning the 2015 governorship election in the state for PDP may be a tall order. This is because, to majority of the people of the state across political party lines Amosun has performed well in his first term.

Verdict: APC to win.

OYO

In Oyo state, the failure of Jonathan’s party to make any appreciable impact at the March 28 election confirmed earlier permutations that Governor Abiola Ajimobi may be looking good for another term in the Government House. With the poor performance of the PDP and Rasheed Ladoja’s Accord Party, the Adebayo Alao-Akala-led Labour Party (LP), is left to challenge the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Saturday’s election.

While the APC clinched all senate seats and majority House of Representatives slots, the LP won two House of Representatives seats. This signals the decline of both the PDP and the Accord Party in the politics of the state. The development also reinforced the readiness of the APC to continue in office beyond 2015.

Incumbent governor, Senator Ajimobi, who is seeking for a second term in office, is up against old familiar foes in the battle for the political soul of the pace setter state.

Lined up against him are his predecessor, Adebayo Alao-Akala of the Labour Party (LP); another former governor, Rashidi Ladoja representing Accord Party (AP); former Senate Leader, Teslim Folarin, the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) a youthful politician and wealthy businessman, Seyi Makinde, the flag bearer of the relatively new Social Democratic Party (SDP).

Although the likes of Jumoke Akinjide, Jonathan’s minister from the state, and Senator Teslim Folarin, gubernatorial candidate, are still of the opinion that the people will vote for their party, indications that this may not be so are numerous. The daily defection of party leaders from the PDP, which started with the exit of former Governor Adebayo Alao-Akala and continued after Jonathan’s loss, remains an issue.

With APC determined to hold on to the state, enjoying the support of all the first class monarchs including Alaafin of Oyo, Soun of Ogbomosho, Olubadan of Ibadan etc, as well as its recent victories across the state in the national assembly elections, Ajimobi may have little or no problem pushing over Akala on his way back to the Government House.

Interestingly, the four leading candidates – Ajimobi, Ladoja, Folarin and Makinde are from Ibadan, the state capital. While Ajimobi hails from Ibadan South, Ladoja comes from Ibadan North, with Folarin and Makinde both from Ona Ara. Akala is an indigene of Ogbomoso.

Against this backdrop, earlier permutations were that the votes from Ibadan would be shared among Ajimobi, Ladoja, Folarin and Makinde, with none of the contenders having a clear cut advantage. Not a few are also ruling Akala out in the scramble for Ibadan votes. The former governor was optimistic of posting a good showing, banking on the fact that his running mate, Sharafa Alli, a former Secretary to the State Government (SSG), hails from Ibadan.

But the massive support given to the APC last weekend by the people of Ibadan, with the party clinching all available positions, has may rubbished such calculations. If last election results are anything to go by, Ajimobi will mop up the votes in his native Ibadan and enjoy support from all other parts of the state.

Verdict: APC wins.

SOUTH EAST

In spite of historical patterns the results of the March 28 presidential and National Assembly elections in the South-East were controversial and intriguing. While informed observers had correctly predicted President Jonathan’s victory in the zone, only very few, if any, imagined the possibility of the ruling party also claiming all the National Assembly seats from the zone.

This situation, coupled with the victory of APC’s Buhari, at the presidential poll, has raised the stakes in this weekend’s governorship and state house of assembly elections in the zone. Before the current realities, PDP supporters in the South-East used to joke that once you secure the party’s ticket at the primaries; you were already on the way to the office you were contesting for. The permutations may have changed largely following the victory of Buhari’s APC at the federal level and the usual craze in the zone to be part of mainstream politics.

ABIA

In Abia State where Governor Theodore Orji effectively controls the PDP party machinery, the party is very hopeful of another landslide both in the governorship and State House of Assembly elections.

Describing Orji’s control of the party machinery in an interview with The Nation, Chief Udensi Ukoma, a community leader in Abia North, said, ” Over the years, PDP has managed to dictate the pace in Abia State politics because of Governor Orji’s style of governance. Until recently, he succeeded in rendering opposition parties redundant in Abia.”

That state of inertia however changed tremendously during the preparations for this year’s governorship primaries as most of the opposition political parties fielded what a political commentator in Umuahia described as “equally strong governorship candidates, whose dynamism brought life to the opposition parties once despised in Umuahia Government House.

For example, the emergence of Dr. Alex Otti, the immediate past Managing Director of Diamond Bank, as the governorship candidate of All Progressives Congress (APGA) rejuvenated the party in the state, making it one of the major contenders.

For the All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate, Dr. Nyerere Anyim, who is from Agburuike Isiugwu in Obingwa LGA, the result of the March 28 presidential election, in which APC candidate emerged the President-elect, is a great boost to his quest to occupy the coveted seat at Umuahia Government House. Many believe that this turn of events in the country’s federal political equation will help to make APC in the state a major contender.

Another factor that threw up the three parties and their candidates as the leading contenders is the zoning factor. They all come from the zone widely favoured to produce the next governor of the state. While his critics tried hard to dismiss Otti’s Ngwa heritage, it seems difficult to say he has no connections with the Ngwa race.

So, these current realities have thrown up the three political parties; the ruling PDP, which has Dr. Okezie Ikpeazu as its governorship candidate, APGA and APC as the major contenders in next week’s governorship election.

While Ikpeazu’s PDP, boasting of the incumbency factor in the state and the fact that the party cleared the presidential and National Assembly elections in the state, is confident to emerge the winner, Nyerere and Otti’s supporters believe the emergence of Buhari, as the president-elect, has neutralized the political temperature in the state, creating a more level playing field. As a result, the two candidates are equally hopeful.

Verdict: PDP to win

 EBONYI

Although Ebonyi is a traditional PDP state, we predicted that it would be a battleground in this year’s presidential election mainly because of the ripple effects of the crisis in PDP, which culminated in the political coup that dislodged control of the party from Governor Martin Elechi.

As it stands, supporters of the embattled governor, who moved over to Labour Party from where they have arguably taken the shine off the PDP at governorship campaigns, are major contenders to the Ebonyi governorship race. The party’s governorship candidate, Chief Edward Nkwegu, enjoys Elechi’s support and this is widely believed to be a major advantage. He equally enjoys the support of former Minister of Health, Prof. Onyebuchi Chukwu, who lost the PDP ticket to the Deputy Governor, Engr. Dave Umahi, in very controversial circumstances.

Umahi, who is the governorship candidate of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has, since his dramatic emergence, fought a brave battle with supporters of Elechi. While his supporters say he has fought bravely enough to be reckoned as a major contender, many believe he and his party, the PDP, will be major casualties of the result of the presidential election and the emergence of All Progressives Congress (APC)’s Muhammadu Buhari as the president-elect. This is because, Umahi’s strength had been traced to his long connection to Abuja and Aso-Rock, but with the imminent change of baton, it is doubtful if Umahi and the state PDP will still get the kind of backing many anticipated they will get in order to win the state governorship race. Some say even if his patrons like Senator Anyim Pius Anyim and President Goodluck Jonathan who had enthroned federal lawmakers in the state still threw their weights behind him, common voters may want to take into cognizance the reality that APC will now be in charge at the centre.

Already, there are stories that the supporters of Elechi in Labour may find an alliance with APC very attractive. If this happens, they may easily win the governorship election, if not, it will be a three horse race.

All these will however depend on how APC succeeds in handling the crisis that trailed its governorship candidate struggle. It would be recalled that in late February, some aggrieved stakeholders of APC in Ebonyi State threatened to leave the party if Senator Julius Ucha remains the party’s governorship flag-bearer. They reportedly said if they still remained in the party, they would work against Ucha as APC’s candidate.

Verdict: Too close to call

ENUGU

Since the dramatic reconciliation of the Deputy Senate President, Ike Ekweremadu-led faction of PDP in Enugu State and that of Governor Sullivan Chime, described by PDP as the major political move that will preserve the ruling Peoples Democratic Party in the state, the party’s governorship candidate, Hon. Ifeanyi-Ugwuanyi, has remained the top contender in this Saturday’s gubernatorial election.

But the dynamic campaign of Okey Ezea-led APC in the state, is now posing a more lethal threat to Ugwuanyi’s predicted victory because of the emergence of APC’s General Muhammadu Buhari as the President-Elect. Already, The Nation gathered that many grassroots political leaders in the state, who never gave a second thought to APC are now willing to work for the party. This will serve as a major boost for the party. Dr. Kingsley Udeh in Enugu said “even if APC failed to win the governorship race in the state, it will get some state House of Assembly seats and that will be a good beginning.”

Again, although the Chime/Ekweremadu rift has been resolved, insiders say many people were hurt in the process and such people may work against PDP.

Also, with Enugu State’s Catholic dominated population, there is the fear at the PDP camp that Father Mbaka’s well publicized sermon may still sway some precious votes to APC. This notwithstanding, Ugwuanyi, who enjoys Governor Sullivan Chime’s full support, according to most people who spoke to The Nation yesterday, remains the foremost contender in the race.

Verdict: PDP to win

IMO

The presidential and National Assembly election results notwithstanding, Imo State is an All Progressives Congress state, with Governor Rochas Okorocha flying the flag of his party for the governorship race.

Before the dramatic emergence of Okorocha, first on the ticket of All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) before the formation of APC, the state had remained a traditional PDP state.

That explained the large number of experienced politicians that are still in the state chapter of PDP and the stiff political challenge Okorocha’s APC still faces in the state. The way Okorocha and others criticized the results of the Presidential and National Assembly election, gives clear impression of the stiff competition in the state. In the said result announced by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), PDP besides winning the presidential race, cleared the National Assembly seats.

But with the emergence of APC’s Buhari as the President-elect, observers say the state elections in Imo will be different. According Ikechukwu Anyanwu, “We know we have long association with PDP and there are many influential politicians in the party, there is no doubt that APC, the ruling party, will do better in next week’s elections.”

The governorship is a three-horse race between the ruling APC, fielding Governor Rochas Okorocha; PDP, fielding Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives, Hon. Emeka Ihedioha and APGA, fielding Captain Emmanuel Iheanacho. While the three parties enjoy sizeable followership in the state, the incumbent governor, Owelle Rochas Okorocha is likely to win the race. The party will also get majority in the House of Assembly but both PDP and APGA will also get seats in the Assembly.

Verdict: APC to win